Carta aberta

Para o Secretário-geral das Nações Unidas Ban Kin Moon
Com cópias para os Chefes de Estado dos países signatários

13 de Dezembro de 2007

A respeito da Conferência climática da ONU [Bali]

É impossível deter as alterações climáticas, um fenómeno natural que tem afectado a humanidade através dos tempos. Os testemunhos históricos, geológicos, arqueológicos, orais e escritos provam todos os desafios fundamentais que as sociedades antigas tiveram de enfrentar perante alterações imprevistas de temperatura, de precipitação, de vento e de outras variáveis climáticas. Devemos consequentemente preparar as nações para resistir a todos estes fenómenos naturais promovendo o crescimento económico e a criação de riqueza.

O Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) tem publicado conclusões cada vez mais alarmistas sobre a influência climática do CO2 de origem humana, um gás não poluente que é essencial à fotossíntese das plantas. Embora compreendamos os argumentos que levaram a considerar as emissões de CO2 como perigosas, as conclusões do IPCC são absolutamente injustificadas e não devem conduzir a políticas que vão reduzir significativamente a prosperidade futura. Em especial, não foi estabelecido que seria possível modificar significativamente o clima global reduzindo as emissões humanas de gases com efeito de estufa. Acima de tudo, porque as tentativas de reduzir emissões vão retardar o desenvolvimento, a abordagem actual da ONU sobre a redução do CO2 é susceptível de agravar o sofrimento humano devido às alterações climáticas futuras em vez de o reduzir.

O Resumo para os Decisores Políticos do IPCC é o documento mais consultado pelos políticos e pelos não-cientistas e está na base da maior parte das decisões políticas sobre as alterações climáticas. Contudo, este resumo é preparado por um núcleo relativamente restrito de redactores e a sua versão final é aprovada linha a linha por representantes dos governos. A grande maioria dos contribuintes e revisores do relatório [geral do IPCC] e das dezenas de milhares doutros cientistas qualificados que comentam sobre esta matéria não estão implicados na preparação deste documento [do Resumo]. O Resumo não pode por conseguinte ser considerado como representativo de um consenso de especialistas.

Contrariamente à impressão dada pelo Resumo para os Decisores Políticos, do IPCC:

· As observações recentes dos fenómenos como a retracção dos glaciares, o aumento do nível do mar e a migração das espécies não testemunham uma alteração climática anormal porque nenhuma destas alterações está para além dos limites da variabilidade natural que conhecemos.
· O ritmo médio de aquecimento de 0,1 ºC/década a 0,2 ºC/década registado pelos satélites nas últimas décadas do século XX está dentro dos limites de aquecimento e de arrefecimento observado nos últimos 10 mil anos.
· Cientistas de primeiro plano, incluindo representantes importantes do IPCC, reconhecem que os modelos informáticos actuais não podem prever o clima. Assim, e apesar das projecções dos computadores de um aumento de temperatura, não tem havido aquecimento global desde 1998. O patamar de temperatura actual que se seguiu a um período de aquecimento no final do século XX está de acordo com ciclos naturais multidecenais ou milenários.
· Exactamente oposto à afirmação frequentemente repetida que na ciência do clima “terminou o debate”, um número importante de novas publicações em revistas com revisão pelos pares coloca cada vez mais em dúvida a hipótese de um aquecimento perigoso de origem humana. Mas como os grupos de trabalho do IPCC tiveram instruções para examinar as publicações [somente] até Maio de 2005 (cf. instruções IPCC) as posteriores conclusões importantes não estão incluídas no seu relatório; o que quer dizer que os relatórios de avaliação do IPCC são baseados em resultados já obsoletos.

A conferência sobre o clima de Bali foi destinada a conduzir o Mundo pelo caminho de uma restrição severa de CO2, ignorando as lições evidentes que se podem tirar do malogro do Protocolo de Quioto, o caos no mercado de transferências de CO2 estabelecido pela Europa e a ineficácia de outras iniciativas dispendiosas destinadas a reduzir as emissões de gases com efeito de estufa. Análises custo-benefício objectivas desacreditam a introdução de medidas globais destinadas a limitar e a reduzir o consumo de energia para reduzir as emissões de CO2. Além disso, é irracional aplicar o “princípio da precaução” porque numerosos cientistas reconhecem que um arrefecimento ou um aquecimento são ambos procedentes e realistas para o clima a médio prazo.

O esforço actual da ONU para “combater as alterações climáticas”, como é apresentado no Relatório sobre o Desenvolvimento Humano do Programa de Desenvolvimento da ONU, de 27 de Novembro de 2007, desvia a atenção dos governos para a ameaça de alterações climáticas inevitáveis sob as suas diferentes formas. É necessária a planificação nacional e internacional perante tais mudanças, ajudando prioritariamente os cidadãos mais vulneráveis a adaptar-se às condições futuras. Tentar impedir o clima de se alterar é fútil e constitui uma má e trágica aplicação de recursos que seriam bem melhor utilizados para resolver os problemas verdadeiros e mais prementes.

Lista de signatários:

– Don Aitkin, PhD, Professor, social scientist, retired vice-chancellor and president, University of Canberra, Australia
– William J.R. Alexander, PhD, Professor Emeritus, Dept. of Civil and Biosystems Engineering, University of Pretoria, South Africa; Member, UN Scientific and Technical Committee on Natural Disasters, 1994-2000
– Bjarne Andresen, PhD, physicist, Professor, The Niels Bohr Institute, University of Copenhagen, Denmark
– Geoff L. Austin, PhD, FNZIP, FRSNZ, Professor, Dept. of Physics, University of Auckland, New Zealand
– Timothy F. Ball, PhD, environmental consultant, former climatology professor, University of Winnipeg
– Ernst-Georg Beck, Dipl. Biol., Biologist, Merian-Schule Freiburg, Germany
– Sonja A. Boehmer-Christiansen, PhD, Reader, Dept. of Geography, Hull University, U.K.; Editor, Energy & Environment journal
– Chris C. Borel, PhD, remote sensing scientist, U.S.
– Reid A. Bryson, PhD, DSc, DEngr, UNE P. Global 500 Laureate; Senior Scientist, Center for Climatic Research; Emeritus Professor of Meteorology, of Geography, and of Environmental Studies, University of Wisconsin
– Dan Carruthers, M.Sc., wildlife biology consultant specializing in animal ecology in Arctic and Subarctic regions, Alberta
– R.M. Carter, PhD, Professor, Marine Geophysical Laboratory, James Cook University, Townsville, Australia
– Ian D. Clark, PhD, Professor, isotope hydrogeology and paleoclimatology, Dept. of Earth Sciences, University of Ottawa
– Richard S. Courtney, PhD, climate and atmospheric science consultant, IPCC expert reviewer, U.K.
– Willem de Lange, PhD, Dept. of Earth and Ocean Sciences, School of Science and Engineering, Waikato University, New Zealand
– David Deming, PhD (Geophysics), Associate Professor, College of Arts and Sciences, University of Oklahoma
– Freeman J. Dyson, PhD, Emeritus Professor of Physics, Institute for Advanced Studies, Princeton, N.J.
– Don J. Easterbrook, PhD, Emeritus Professor of Geology, Western Washington University
– Lance Endersbee, Emeritus Professor, former dean of Engineering and Pro-Vice Ch
ancellor of Monasy University, Australia
– Hans Erren, Doctorandus, geophysicist and climate specialist, Sittard, The Netherlands
– Robert H. Essenhigh, PhD, E.G. Bailey Professor of Energy Conversion, Dept. of Mechanical Engineering, The Ohio State University
– Christopher Essex, PhD, Professor of Applied Mathematics and Associate Director of the Program in Theoretical Physics, University of Western Ontario
– David Evans, PhD, mathematician, carbon accountant, computer and electrical engineer and head of ‘Science Speak,’ Australia
– William Evans, PhD, editor, American Midland Naturalist; Dept. of Biological Sciences, University of Notre Dame
– Stewart Franks, PhD, Professor, Hydroclimatologist, University of Newcastle, Australia
– R. W. Gauldie, PhD, Research Professor, Hawai’i Institute of Geophysics and Planetology, School of Ocean Earth Sciences and Technology, University of Hawai’i at Manoa
– Lee C. Gerhard, PhD, Senior Scientist Emeritus, University of Kansas; former director and state geologist, Kansas Geological Survey
– Gerhard Gerlich, Professor for Mathematical and Theoretical Physics, Institut für Mathematische Physik der TU Braunschweig, Germany
– Albrecht Glatzle, PhD, sc.agr., Agro-Biologist and Gerente ejecutivo, INTTAS, Paraguay
– Fred Goldberg, PhD, Adjunct Professor, Royal Institute of Technology, Mechanical Engineering, Stockholm, Sweden
– Vincent Gray, PhD, expert reviewer for the IPCC and author of The Greenhouse Delusion: A Critique of Climate Change 2001, Wellington, New Zealand
– William M. Gray, Professor Emeritus, Dept. of Atmospheric Science, Colorado State University and Head of the Tropical Meteorology Project
– Howard Hayden, PhD, Emeritus Professor of Physics, University of Connecticut
– Louis Hissink MSc, M.A.I.G., editor, AIG News, and consulting geologist, Perth, Western Australia
– Craig D. Idso, PhD, Chairman, Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change, Arizona
– Sherwood B. Idso, PhD, President, Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change, AZ, USA
– Andrei Illarionov, PhD, Senior Fellow, Center for Global Liberty and Prosperity; founder and director of the Institute of Economic Analysis
– Zbigniew Jaworowski, PhD, physicist, Chairman – Scientific Council of Central Laboratory for Radiological Protection, Warsaw, Poland
– Jon Jenkins, PhD, MD, computer modelling – virology, NSW, Australia
– Wibjorn Karlen, PhD, Emeritus Professor, Dept. of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology, Stockholm University, Sweden
– Olavi Kärner, Ph.D., Research Associate, Dept. of Atmospheric Physics, Institute of Astrophysics and Atmospheric Physics, Toravere, Estonia
– Joel M. Kauffman, PhD, Emeritus Professor of Chemistry, University of the Sciences in Philadelphia
– David Kear, PhD, FRSNZ, CMG, geologist, former Director-General of NZ Dept. of Scientific & Industrial Research, New Zealand
– Madhav Khandekar, PhD, former research scientist, Environment Canada; editor, Climate Research (2003-05); editorial board member, Natural Hazards; IPCC expert reviewer 2007
– William Kininmonth M.Sc., M.Admin., former head of Australia’s National Climate Centre and a consultant to the World Meteorological Organization’s Commission for Climatology
– Jan J.H. Kop, MSc Ceng FICE (Civil Engineer Fellow of the Institution of Civil Engineers), Emeritus Prof. of Public Health Engineering, Technical University Delft, The Netherlands
– Prof. R.W.J. Kouffeld, Emeritus Professor, Energy Conversion, Delft University of Technology, The Netherlands
– Salomon Kroonenberg, PhD, Professor, Dept. of Geotechnology, Delft University of Technology, The Netherlands
– Hans H.J. Labohm, PhD, economist, former advisor to the executive board, Clingendael Institute (The Netherlands Institute of International Relations), The Netherlands
– The Rt. Hon. Lord Lawson of Blaby, economist; Chairman of the Central Europe Trust; former Chancellor of the Exchequer, U.K.
– Douglas Leahey, PhD, meteorologist and air-quality consultant, Calgary
– David R. Legates, PhD, Director, Center for Climatic Research, University of Delaware
– Marcel Leroux, PhD, Professor Emeritus of Climatology, University of Lyon, France; former director of Laboratory of Climatology, Risks and Environment, CNRS
– Bryan Leyland, International Climate Science Coalition, consultant and power engineer, Auckland, New Zealand
– William Lindqvist, PhD, independent consulting geologist, Calif.
– Richard S. Lindzen, PhD, Alfred P. Sloan Professor of Meteorology, Dept. of Earth, Atmospheric and Planetary Sciences, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
– A.J. Tom van Loon, PhD, Professor of Geology (Quaternary Geology), Adam Mickiewicz University, Poznan, Poland; former President of the European Association of Science Editors
– Anthony R. Lupo, PhD, Associate Professor of Atmospheric Science, Dept. of Soil, Environmental, and Atmospheric Science, University of Missouri-Columbia
– Richard Mackey, PhD, Statistician, Australia
– Horst Malberg, PhD, Professor for Meteorology and Climatology, Institut für Meteorologie, Berlin, Germany
– John Maunder, PhD, Climatologist, former President of the Commission for Climatology of the World Meteorological Organization (89-97), New Zealand
– Alister McFarquhar, PhD, international economy, Downing College, Cambridge, U.K.
– Ross McKitrick, PhD, Associate Professor, Dept. of Economics, University of Guelph
– John McLean, PhD, climate data analyst, computer scientist, Australia
– Owen McShane, PhD, economist, head of the International Climate Science Coalition; Director, Centre for Resource Management Studies, New Zealand
– Fred Michel, PhD, Director, Institute of Environmental Sciences and Associate Professor of Earth Sciences, Carleton University
– Frank Milne, PhD, Professor, Dept. of Economics, Queen’s University
– Asmunn Moene, PhD, former head of the Forecasting Centre, Meteorological Institute, Norway
– Alan Moran, PhD, Energy Economist, Director of the IPA’s Deregulation Unit, Australia
– Nils-Axel Morner, PhD, Emeritus Professor of Paleogeophysics & Geodynamics, Stockholm University, Sweden
– Lubos Motl, PhD, Physicist, former Harvard string theorist, Charles University, Prague, Czech Republic
– John Nicol, PhD, Professor Emeritus of Physics, James Cook University, Australia
– David Nowell, M.Sc., Fellow of the Royal Meteorological Society, former chairman of the NATO Meteorological Group, Ottawa
– James J. O’Brien, PhD, Professor Emeritus, Meteorology and Oceanography, Florida State University
– Cliff Ollier, PhD, Professor Emeritus (Geology), Research Fellow, University of Western Australia
– Garth W. Paltridge, PhD, atmospheric physicist, Emeritus Professor and former Director of the Institute of Antarctic and Southern Ocean Studies, University of Tasmania, Australia
– R. Timothy Patterson, PhD, Professor, Dept. of Earth Sciences (paleoclimatology), Carleton University
– Al Pekarek, PhD, Associate Professor of Geology, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences Dept., St. Cloud State University, Minnesota
– Ian Plimer, PhD, Professor of Geology, School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Adelaide and Emeritus Professor of Earth Sciences, University of Melbourne, Australia
– Brian Pratt, PhD, Professor of Geology, Sedimentology, University of Saskatchewan
– Harry N.A. Priem, PhD, Emeritus Professor of Planetary Geology and Isotope Geophysics, Utrecht University; former director of the Netherlands Institute for Isotope Geosciences
– Alex Robson, PhD, Economics, Australian National University Colonel F.P.M. Rombouts, Branch Chief – Safety, Quality and Environment, Royal Netherland Air Force
– R.G. Roper, PhD, Professor Emeritus of Atmospheric Sciences, School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Institute of Technology
– Arthur Rorsch, PhD, Emeritus Professor, Molecular Genetics, Leiden Universi
ty, The Netherlands
– Rob Scagel, M.Sc., forest microclimate specialist, principal consultant, Pacific Phytometric Consultants, B.C.
– Tom V. Segalstad, PhD, (Geology/Geochemistry), Head of the Geological Museum and Associate Professor of Resource and Environmental Geology, University of Oslo, Norway
– Gary D. Sharp, PhD, Center for Climate/Ocean Resources Study, Salinas, CA
– S. Fred Singer, PhD, Professor Emeritus of Environmental Sciences, University of Virginia and former director Weather Satellite Service
– L. Graham Smith, PhD, Associate Professor, Dept. of Geography, University of Western Ontario
– Roy W. Spencer, PhD, climatologist, Principal Research Scientist, Earth System Science Center, The University of Alabama, Huntsville
– Peter Stilbs, TeknD, Professor of Physical Chemistry, Research Leader, School of Chemical Science and Engineering, KTH (Royal Institute of Technology), Stockholm, Sweden
– Hendrik Tennekes, PhD, former director of research, Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute
– Dick Thoenes, PhD, Emeritus Professor of Chemical Engineering, Eindhoven University of Technology, The Netherlands
– Brian G Valentine, PhD, PE (Chem.), Technology Manager – Industrial Energy Efficiency, Adjunct Associate Professor of Engineering Science, University of Maryland at College Park; Dept of Energy, Washington, DC
– Gerrit J. van der Lingen, PhD, geologist and paleoclimatologist, climate change consultant, Geoscience Research and Investigations, New Zealand
– Len Walker, PhD, Power Engineering, Australia
– Edward J. Wegman, PhD, Department of Computational and Data Sciences, George Mason University, Virginia
– Stephan Wilksch, PhD, Professor for Innovation and Technology Management, Production Management and Logistics, University of Technolgy and Economics Berlin, Germany
– Boris Winterhalter, PhD, senior marine researcher (retired), Geological Survey of Finland, former professor in marine geology, University of Helsinki, Finland
– David E. Wojick, PhD, P.Eng., energy consultant, Virginia
– Raphael Wust, PhD, Lecturer, Marine Geology/Sedimentology, James Cook University, Australia
– A. Zichichi, PhD, President of the World Federation of Scientists, Geneva, Switzerland; Emeritus Professor of Advanced Physics, University of Bologna, Italy.